Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
