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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

However this year's race is profoundly different. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners declining and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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