Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
